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With odds of 17% on Kalshi’s futures market, the Rams are the only NFL team to open the season with double-digit odds. The probability translates to +488 in American odds, a figure that is regarded as comparatively low for a Super Bowl favourite. But history is not on the Rams’ side – all of the last 25 NFL teams to open a season with futures odds of +500 or lower have failed to win the Super Bowl, according to Yahoo Sports.

In May, the NFL sent a letter to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission with a list of certain event contracts it deemed objectionable. By July, the league doubled down with public comments to the CFTC after the agency issued draft regulations for the contracts. The NFL cited props on player injuries, penalty totals and missed field goals as those that fit the bill. Goodell, however, conceded that the NFL has held discussions regarding prediction markets as public policy evolves.

Two other leagues, Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League, have each signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the CFTC that allows participating teams to partner with the operators.

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The Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) received the filing on September 17, which is titled “Regulation Crypto Asset Transactions and Regulation Crypto Asset Markets.” The proposal remains in the early stages, and the details are not yet public, as reported by The Block. 

The move came shortly after the Senate declined to advance the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act. The procedural vote on September 15 rejected it with 49-50, not meeting the 60 votes required to move forward. 

The CFTC’s move gives the agency a chance to pursue parts of a crypto market framework under its existing authority, rather than waiting for Congress to resolve the broader legislative debate. 

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The institutional layer is largely invisible to customers presented with a P2P proposition. Retail users may technically trade against one another, but the depth required by a mass-market product cannot be supplied by occasional customers alone. Professional firms must be prepared to quote continuously and commit substantial capital.

Marantelli says the London-based White Swan is a significant market maker on several secondary exchanges, accounting for as much as 40% of activity on some platforms. Its particular focus is the RFQ, parlay market.

“Just better margins,” he says of that decision. “I think it’s more defendable. It’s the area that fewer people can do well. So I think it’s more defendable margin, more ability to get long-term contracts and beneficial positions.”